I saw the movie, Disclosure Day. I was not impressed. It was (mild spoiler alert) a completely unimaginative wet dream of what the UFO community fantasizes the government is hiding from all of us. There were no new interesting angles or plot twists or deeper story elements added to this now standard modern mythology. I kept waiting for the story to get actually interesting. It never did.

What would have been a far more brilliant movie, in my opinion (but not one that Spielberg, a believer, would ever do) is if, at the end of the movie, when the government’s UFO files were finally released to the public, they showed exactly what the Pentagon’s UFO files actually show. It would have been wonderfully anti-climactic, forcing the audience to rethink everything they just watched and were lead to believe. Of course, the rest of the movie would need to be tweaked to be consistent with this ending, and if done well it would be like Sixth Sense – a brilliant twist ending that changes your perspective on the entire movie.

Imagining such an ending to a movie like Disclosure Day, I think, puts the real-world disclosures by the Pentagon into perspective. They are giant nothing-burgers. . They consist of blobs and dots and shadows, and we must be told what we are looking at. The descriptions can sound impressive, but they contain hidden assumptions and often bad analysis that do not hold up under scrutiny. I have to say, If I were a UFO believer, waiting a large chunk of my life for the “truth” about alien spaceships to finally come out, and then being fed nothing but a bunch of blobsquatch videos, I would be beyond disappointed. 

Let’s take a look at the latest batch of Pentagon files released (with the promise of more to come). The video getting the most attention so far is the “cold orbs” video. Here is what we are being told: “In an accompanying incident report, the blips are described as “Multiple Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon Observed Maneuvering Erratically and In Formation.” The report states that the objects appeared to be flying at lower altitudes and to vary in speed between 250 and 1,300 miles per hour with no detected means of propulsion.”

That is not what I see. First, this is a cell phone recording of an infrared monitor, not a recording from the monitor itself. This potentially introduces new artifacts. I see one prominent dot, with perhaps a few other fleeting dots or ones that are just at the edge of detection. They are not moving together or in formation. What I think the report is referring to is the very obvious trailing phenomenon – when the dot moves across the monitor it leaves in its wake a trail of ghosts. We have all seen this many times.

The pattern of the movement is best described as stochastic – an apparent random flittering here and there. I’m not sure why an alien craft under intelligent control would move in such a fashion. But then, these disclosures represent “anomalies”, not a coherent phenomena. So they don’t have to make sense, they just have to be weird.

But the core of the problem with the report is the estimation of the speed of the object. It is based upon assumptions about size and distance. The report notes: ““approximately four-foot diameter cold orbs” hovering some 20 feet above the flare.” That is almost certainly where the issue is – those viewing the “orbs” could not judge distance properly, and therefore made false assumptions about size and therefore distance. It is, for example, entirely possible that the object in the video is extremely close and small.

It is uncontroversial that our brains, when confronted with ambiguous stimuli, will make likely assumptions about what it thinks it is seeing and then construct our perceptions accordingly. This happens often when there is no clear background for perspective, small close objects can seem large and far away.

What does all this mean? My best guess is that the object we are seeing in that video is an insect. This is a known phenomena, actually common with infrared cameras. Close up bugs or floating dust reflects infrared light and will glow like an orb, because they are close to the camera and out of focus. So – a fly could create such an image, and the image moves like a fly. Occam’s razor – it’s a fly until proven otherwise.

You know what we did not see in this latest file release or any previous file release? An actual alien spacecraft, an alien body, clear alien technology, or anything even remotely compelling (at least to someone like me, who has been following the UFO phenomenon for 50 years). We have not seen anything like the videos depicted in Disclosure Day – which ironically amounts to a type of confession, in my opinion.  Disclosure Day is an admission of sorts, that if the government were hiding contact with aliens for the last 60 years they would have some actual unequivocal evidence to disclose.

True believers can still maintain that the govern is hiding aliens, the Pentagon Disclosure are all a false flag operation meant to further distract and misdirect the public, and that the real evidence is concealed by the UFO deep state. Of course, you can always just invent a bigger deeper conspiracy to explain away why your narrative is not holding up to evidence. This deep state would then have to be beyond the reach of the Trump Administration and Congress. Either that, or they are all still part of the conspiracy and just lying to the public. You can decide how plausible you think that explanation is.

Or – somewhat of a simpler explanation – aliens are not visiting the Earth, and these anomalous videos are just the kinds of mundane anomalies and misperceptions we would expect from any massive set of data.