Jun 06 2016

The Lost City

ZakynthosWe often don’t give nature enough credit. In many contexts, scientists or explorers find an anomaly and immediately the interest and speculation turns to intelligent agents at work. The ultimate expression of this, of course, is intelligent design creationism, where nature is denied credit for biology itself.

For example, snorklers discovered some odd shaped stones off the coast of the Greek island Zakynthos. The stones were surprisingly round, and so the immediate speculation was that these were the bases of pillars and are therefore the remains of an ancient Greek port, since lost to the sea.

I am not saying that this hypothesis is unreasonable, just that it seems to be the preferred hypothesis. This preference is also not unreasonable, because the remains of an ancient city are a lot more interesting than some oddly shapes stones (unless you’re a geologist).

Of course, there is always going to be someone taking such speculation too far, and prematurely concluding they have evidence for an intelligent artifact, even when further scientific investigation finds otherwise. It’s important to remember that in order to conclude that an anomaly is the product of deliberate artifice, we need further evidence. Greek ruins, for example, are lousy with pot shards. They are just everywhere. None have been found in the vicinity of the alleged pillars, however. This should give any ancient Greek port proponents extreme pause.

In the case of the Zakynthos pillars, a recent scientific investigation has now determined that the round stones are the result of natural processes, not human manufacture.

Another classic case, very similar to the pillars, is Bimini road – underwater stones off the cost of the island of Bimini that some have claims are a road to Atlantis. But again, scientific investigation has found that the stones are a natural formation.

There are also many “mysterious stones” that are roughly saucer shaped which, of course, are claimed to be alien flying saucers. In all these cases the natural factor that is neglects is the effect of water on rocks over millions of years. Flowing water in particular can form smooth round surfaces.

Another class of anomalies are the Google Earth shapes. Amateurs can spend hours scouring Google Earth for anything unusual, and of course they find it. Using aerial or satellite images to look for possible locations of archaeological sites is perfectly legitimate. But as any archaeologist can tell you (and have told me), you always need confirmation on the ground. Aerial photos can be deceiving.

As an example, recently a young Canadian student found an interesting anomaly on Google Earth that he thought might be a lost Mayan city. He found the anomaly by looking in a location derived from the hypothesis that the Mayan’s built their cities in a pattern to reflect constellations in the sky. This is not an unreasonable hypothesis, and he did find an anomaly at the predicted location.

The media made much more of this than it was worth, making the Lost Mayan City the meme of the week. It was quickly discovered, however, that the lost Mayan city was neither lost, nor Mayan, nor a city. It is probably just a small farm. (In this case the reality wasn’t entirely natural and was man-made, just not a city.)

This phenomenon, however, is not limited to Earth. NASA photos of the Moon and Mars also turn up many anomalies that are immediately declared alien artifacts, or even aliens themselves. Bigfoot on Mars is my favorite example.

There are many interesting geological features on Mars, and it probably upsets geologists that many of them are deemed not geological by the alien-hunters.

I save the most interesting example for last. Recently astronomers discovered a star that has an unusual pattern of dips in the intensity of its light. Astronomers use what is called the transit method as one method to find planets around other stars. When the planet’s orbit is in visual line with the Earth, then the planet will pass in front of its star from our perspective, causing the light to dip slightly. We now have telescopes, like Kepler, that can detect this slight dip. Once the dip occurs in a regular period, we know we have a planet.

KIC 8462852 is a star 1.480 light years from Earth. Using Kepler astronomer have found that every couple of years the light from this star dips in a chaotic pattern by about 20%. This is unprecedented. A planet the size of Jupiter passing in front of its star, even in a close orbit, might block about 1% of the light.

Of course, the immediate speculation is that this anomaly is caused by an alien megastructure built around the star (like a Dyson swarm). Of course, this would be incredibly interesting. In fact it would be perhaps the greatest scientific discovery of all time – the first solid evidence that we are not alone in the universe. So I understand the interest, and I share it.

However, nature must first be given its due. Astronomers need to carefully consider and rule out any possible natural explanation before we can tentatively conclude the anomaly is due to aliens. I find it interesting that so far, astronomers have been unable to come up with a viable hypothesis that explains the observation. It must be some kind of swarm of debris, but there is a curious lack of infrared emanating from a cloud of debris that would be heated by the sun, and astronomers don’t know what the nature of this debris would be.

I think the most likely explanation is that this is a rare astronomical phenomenon, like a couple of very large planets destroying each other and creating a crazy big debris field around the star. But at this point we cannot rule out aliens.

SETI has been taking a look at the star, and so far nothing. This is disappointing, but does not rule out aliens.

Conclusion

The allure of the “lost city” or lost or alien civilization is understandably great. That, of course, is when we need to be most skeptical.

Some of the examples, like Bigfoot on Mars and stone UFOs, are just silly and easily dismissed. The Mars Bigfoot is obviously just a natural rock, it is actually quite small and is jutting out at an angle. Just looking at the entire photo is enough to debunk the Bigfoot hypothesis.

Other examples were reasonable hypotheses but close examination reveals a natural process at work.

KIC 8462852 is a current mystery. I would love nothing more than for this to turn out to be an alien megastructure, and hope is not dead, but I know that it is overwhelmingly likely that rather it is just a really cool astronomical phenomenon.

The media, of course, is prematurely calling it an alien megastructure, like they called the farmland prematurely a lost Mayan city. In general we should avoid referring to an anomaly by a name that assumes the most unlikely conclusion.

It is important to understand our “intelligent design bias” not to dismiss such hypotheses out of hand, but to remain cautious and maintain a healthy skepticism.

 

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