I think it’s increasingly difficult to argue that the recent boom in artificial intelligence (AI) is mostly hype. There is a lot of hype, but don’t let that distract you from the real progress. The best indication of this is applications in scientific research, because the outcomes are measurable and objective. AI applications are particularly adept at finding patterns in vast sets of data, finding patterns in hours that might have required months of traditional research. We recently discussed on the SGU using AI to sequence proteins, which is the direction that researchers are going in. Compared to the traditional method using AI analysis is faster and better at identifying novel proteins (not already in the database).

One SGU listener asked an interesting question after our discussion of AI and protein sequencing that I wanted to explore – can we apply the same approach to DNA and can this result in reverse-engineering the genetic sequence from the desired traits? AI is already transforming genetic research. AI apps allow for faster, cheaper, and more accurate DNA sequencing, while also allowing for the identification of gene variants that correlate with a disease or a trait. Genetics is in the sweet spot for these AI applications – using large databases to find meaningful patterns. How far will this tech go, and how quickly.

We have already sequenced the DNA of over 3,000 species. This number is increasing quickly, accelerated by AI sequencing techniques. We also have a lot of data about gene sequences and the resulting proteins, non-coding regulatory DNA, gene variants and disease states, and developmental biology. If we trained an AI on all this data, could it then make predictions about the effects of novel gene variants? Could it also go from a desired morphological trait back to the genetic sequence that would produce that trait? Again, this sounds like the perfect application for AI.

In the short run this approach is likely to accelerate genetic research and allow us to ask questions that would have been impractical otherwise. This will build the genetic database itself. In the not-so-medium term this could also become a powerful tool of genetic modification. We won’t necessarily need to take a gene from one species and put it into another. We could simply predict which changes would need to be made to the existing genes of a cultivar to get the desired trait. Then we can use CRISPR (or some other tool) to make those specific changes to the genome.

How far will this technology go? At some point in the long term could we, for example, ask an AI to start with a chicken genome and then predict which specific genetic changes would be necessary to change that chicken into a velociraptor? We could change an elephant into a wooly mammoth. Could this become a realistic tool of deextinction? Could we reduce the risk of extinction in an endangered species by artificially increasing the genetic diversity in the remaining population?

What I am describing so far is actually the low-hanging-fruit. AI is already accelerating genetics research. It is already being used for genetic engineering, to help predict the net effects of genetic changes to reduce the chance of unintended consequences. This is just one step away from using AI to plan the changes in the first place. Using AI to help increase genetic diversity in at-risk populations and for deextinction is a logical next step.

But that is not where this thought experiment ends. Of course whenever we consider making genetic changes to humans the ethics becomes very complicated. Using AI and genetic technology for designer humans is something we will have to confront at some point. What about entirely artificial organisms? At what point can we not only tweak or even significantly transform existing species, but design a new species from the ground up? The ethics of this are extremely complicated, as are the potential positive and negative implications. The obvious risk would be releasing into the wild a species that would be the ultimate invasive species.

There are safeguards that could be created. All such creatures, for example, could be not just sterile but completely unable to reproduce. I know – this didn’t work out well on Jurassic Park, nature finds a way, etc, but there are potential safeguards so complete that no mutation would fix, such as completely lacking reproductive organs or gametes. There is also the “lysine contingency” – essentially some biological factor that would prevent the organism from surviving for long outside a controlled environment.

This all sound scary, but at some point we could theoretically get to acceptable safety levels. For example, imagine a designer pet, with a suite of desirable features. This creature cannot reproduce, and if you don’t regularly feed it special food it will die, or perhaps just go into a coma from which it can be revived. Such pets might be safer than playing genetic roulette with random breeding of domesticated predators. This goes not just for pets but for a variety of work animals.

Sure – PETA will have a meltdown. There are legitimate ethical considerations. But I don’t think they are unresolvable.

In any case, we are rapidly hurtling toward this future. We should at least head into this future with our eyes open.