I have been away on vacation for the last week and a half, so I thought I would ease back into blogging with a light non-controversial topic – the Epstein Files. OK – let’s all take a collective deep breath. Everyone – and I mean everyone – I talk to about this issue has strong feelings and beliefs about it. Even some of my close fellow skeptics have a hard time wrapping their head around what the most logical and objective opinion to have on this issue is. I have struggled as well. I don’t plan on making a hard case for one interpretation, or doing a deep dive on the political implications. If you want to read about that, there is plenty to feast on.

I do want to explore a couple of aspects of this case from a skeptical perspective, mostly having to do with conspiracy thinking, how that works, and how it feeds our current social media ecosystem. To quickly review the basic facts, Jeffrey Epstein was a wealthy financier, although I have read that there is significant uncertainty as to how, exactly, he made his millions. He used his money partly to cozy up to celebrities, politicians, and scientists. This list includes Donald Trump, which is why we are all still talking about it. Epstein also apparently had an appetite for young girls and used his money and the influence he was able to get from it to secure a steady stream of underage girls to his properties, where he sexually abused them.

Epstein essentially ran what many refer to as a child sex trafficking ring. He pled guilty in Florida to one count of solicitation of a minor in 2008 (plus another count of prostitution, but not of a minor), and was given a light sentence and was able to shield himself from federal prosecution. He hired some high-power lawyers to essentially make his legal problems go away, and then he resumed his activities. Then in 2019 he was indicted again in New York federal court. By this time the complaints and the case had grown too large to ignore or for him to just make go away with some legal power. Prosecutors determined that the prior plea deal did not block a new prosecution, so he was arrested. While being held in federal prison he was found dead by apparent suicide in his cell. This was shortly after being taken off suicide watch.

Two main questions remain about the case: Did Epstein really kill himself in his cell, or was he murdered? Or perhaps he was taken off suicide watch so that he could take his own life. The second question is – is there a list of “clients” that took part in the child sex ring, and if so, who is on that list? Let me start with the first question.

Of course, I do not know what really happened. No one does. Many people I talk to have a high degree of certainty that Epstein was murdered, and I think this certainty is unwarranted. Often the conclusion is supported by one or more logical fallacies. The first is that, of course he was murdered because powerful people wanted him dead. But this does not follow – it is an argument from final consequences. He also had a high motivation to take his own life, and he apparently did so at a time that is known to be of extremely high risk for anyone just jailed for a serious crime.

The other argument is that the guards would not be so incompetent as to let this happen, so they must have been complicit. The assumption of lack of incompetence, however, is not warranted. I have spoken to several lawyers or read their articles on this issue – apparently this kind of incompetence, or failure to follow best practices, is not uncommon. In other words, this is exactly the kind of thing that can and regularly does happen in federal jail. This is a case of Hanlon’s razor – never ascribe to malice that which can be more simply explained as mere stupidity or incompetence. This is an extension of Occam’s Razor that I think applies here.

The official determination of forensic examination is that Epstein died of hanging. One expert hired by Epstein’s brother raised doubts about this, but his points were quickly countered. I think the bottom line here is that what scientific evidence we have is consistent with a hanging, but of course by itself cannot rule out that he was helped or forced. So I think we are left with having to accept the fact that we are uncertain about the question of suicide vs murder. The evidence and sequence of events is consistent with suicide, but cannot rule out nefarious acts or murder.

There is also the issue of the one minute gap in the video recording. That is just enough time to fuel conspiracy theorists, but doesn’t really make murder more plausible. The gap also occurred right at midnight, which is apparently when the system resets. The three minute discrepancy is a separate issue and is not a gap in the footage – it is a metadata discrepancy. I don’t know what this is about. For now it is just an anomaly, but I’m certainly open to further analysis.

What about the Epstein files? Here, too, I think we need to be comfortable with uncertainty. What we do know is that a case file on the Epstein situation exists and is in the hands of the DOJ. We also know that, over the last four years, these files were in the hands of the Biden administration, and during this time no smoking gun was revealed. Nor were any tantalizing pieces of information released that would have negatively impacted Trump’s 2024 campaign. I think the simplest explanation for this is that – no such information exists.

We also know that during this time the right-wing media ecosystem, fueled by Trump and his allies, stoked the flames of a conspiracy theory that “the Democrats” were hiding the Epstein files because there was information in there that would expose that they are complicit in a child sex trafficking ring. This is an extension of the “Pizzagate” conspiracy. Trump was elected partly on the promise that he would release all this information to the public, finally blowing open this decades-long conspiracy. We also know that now Trump’s DOJ, and Trump himself, are saying – nothing to see here. The files contain no secret client list, and we all should just move along.

Here is where I think most people I speak to get tripped up, and what took me a while to sort out. Trump is certainly behaving as if he is hiding something, and many a late-night commentator has made the point that the simplest explanation here is that he is. But they are looking at Trump’s recent behavior in isolation. We also have to square this with the fact that nothing came out during Biden’s four years. The simplest explanation of all of this information taken together is that – there is nothing in the Epstein files. Perhaps he was just a lone creep who liked to pal around with celebs and throw lavish parties, but there is no evidence that anyone famous, of any political persuasion, was complicit in the child sex abuse. Or perhaps someone was, but the evidence is not there. That seems to be the only conclusion that accounts adequately for all the information we have (without further deepening the conspiracy to truly inane depths).

So why, then, the “nothing to see here” approach of the Trump administration? Why not just release the files? I think the simplest answer here is – he spent a lot of time pumping the conspiracy theory, and making empty promises, and now that he and his fellow conspiracy theorists are actually in power, they cannot back up their claims or false promises, so they want it all to go away. Pretend like it was never anything and you are an idiot if you thought it was.

What I find very interesting about the whole thing is how much it fits with the typical conspiracy theory cycle. True conspiracy theorists (meaning those who promote inherently implausible grand conspiracy theories based on faulty logic, anomaly hunting, and all the rest) can never deliver. All they have is innuendo, just asking questions, and using cynicism to make something appear more sinister than it is. This works when you are not in power. But once you are, the shell game is exposed. Otherwise conspiracy theorists just keep stringing themselves and everyone else along indefinitely, and never produce the goods. The simplest explanation as to why is because they can’t – because the conspiracy is an illusion.

In the end, what should we think about the Epstein case? Again, I don’t have any hard conclusions, because like everyone else in the public I only have what information is publicly released. The fact that there are crazy conspiracy theories (like a vast Democratic ring of child sex traffickers) does not mean there isn’t a smaller more plausible conspiracy to hide some uncomfortable facts at the heart of the Epstein case. I do think the simplest explanation here is that the files have no smoking gun, but that does not mean that further investigation might not reveal some juicy tidbits.

What I predict is – the whole thing will come to essentially nothing, but the conspiracy theories will never die.