Aug 04 2009

The Next Electric Car

I have been following this technology and occasionally posting about it here, so I thought I would mention that Nissan has announced their new fully electric car line – Leaf. They expect it will roll out in 2010, but perhaps not fully until 2012.

Of course, I was interested in the specs. These were interestingly difficult to come by – I had to dig pretty deep on the company’s website, and the vital stats were not in the press release. The Leaf is powered by a lithium-ion battery, like the Chevy Volt. However, the Volt still retains a small gas engine to recharge the battery and extend its range, while the Leaf does not. Previous electric cars (like the GM car featured in the movie, Who Killed the Electric Car) used a Nickel-Metal Hydride battery with a much shorter range.

Nissan claims a maximum speed of 90mph. I suspect we won’t know how peppy it is until consumers are driving in ones that have come off the assembly line. It is a 5-door sedan that seats 5 – Nissan specifically wanted an ordinary and not futuristic-looking car, which was probably a good idea. They want the technology to seem real and practical, not a futuristic novelty.

The two stats I was most interested in were range and recharge time. The range is listed as 100 miles. This is not quite up to the 200-300 mile range that is generally considered the threshold for the general market. But 100 miles is respectable, and is long enough for most commutes. It does make me wonder, though, if Nissan would have been better off adding a small gas engine to extend the range.

By comparison the Tesla roadster has a 250 mile range, but this is a small two seater and will cost $100,000. Not a family car.

I could not find anything on recharge time from a home outlet. Nissan is just saying at this point that they will also be rolling out recharge stations. These will feature rapid recharging equipment that can give 80% charge in 30 minutes, or an extra 31 mile range in 5 minutes.  This is not impressive. The 30 minute recharge is likely not practical most of the time – unless you plan your trip carefully, and have lunch while your car is recharging. This may also be useful if office buildings have their own rechargers and recharge cars during the day for the commute back home. A recharger will cost $45,000, so you will likely not have one in your garage.

There is no mention of the alternate strategy of swapping out batteries – which seems to me to be a better approach. This way you get a fully charged battery in a few minutes – comparable to filling up your tank (assuming they can make the swapping process efficient enough).

Battery technology is still the limiting factor for electric cars. While there are many breakthrough designs in the lab, from what I read we are likely to see incremental improvements on the lithium-ion battery as the battery of choice for years to come. This is because the manufacturing infrastructure is already in place. Leaf represents this kind of advance – Nissan claims they doubled the capacity of the lithium-ion battery. If they can do it again – and get up to 200 mile range – electric cars might be able to go mainstream. Recharge time and convenience is the next hurdle, and as I said swapping is likely to be the answer, but we’ll see.

Of course it would be a game changer if someone figures out how to mass produce the next generation of battery – something with an order of magnitude greater capacity per size and weight of existing batteries.

The Nissan Leaf is not quite there yet – it will likely not by the electric car that everyone wants. It may be good enough, though, to capture a significant niche market and early adopters. It may be the toe-hold on the market electric cars need to have a permanent presence on the roads. But more advances are needed – basically it’s all about the battery.

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