That’s the plan anyway, weather permitting. While the launch itself is nothing new, the mission is a milestone for the space industry. The launch involves a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket with the Dragon Crew Endeavor spacecraft – this will be the third launch for this spacecraft, highlighting the reusability of these capsules. Right now the launch is planned for 11:17 AM EDT, and you can watch coverage live at the Axiom website.

Notice that you can watch on Axiom, a private space company. While NASA will also be broadcasting the launch, they will not be providing their own clean feed. That’s because this is not primarily a NASA mission. In fact, for the first time, NASA will not be providing mission control, which instead will be run out of Axiom’s Houston command center. Further (and this is a first) the crew will be comprised of four private citizens.

“The astronauts onboard are all private citizens, with the mission commander, Michael López-Alegría, a previous NASA astronaut. The other three members, Larry Connor, Eytan Stibbe, and Mark Pathy are described by the company as “entrepreneurs” and “investors.””

These are not billionaires just going on a joyride, although they are all wealthy private citizens, each of whom paid $55 million dollars toward the mission. As stated, one is a prior NASA astronaut, also one a commercial pilot, and one a former military pilot. Any of them could quality as NASA astronauts. The AX-1 mission, as they are calling it, is a 10-day mission, with 8 days spent onboard the ISS conducting scientific experiments. NASA is providing some funding and logistical support, but this is primarily a commercial mission.

The Ax-1 mission represents the evolution of NASA’s plan to help develop a self-sustaining low-Earth orbit (LEO) private economy, so they can focus on deep-space missions and exploration. This is essentially a SpaceX – Axiom joint mission, with NASA playing a supporting role. The goal is that eventually private space companies will be entirely independent, with public organizations like NASA simply renting services from them as needed.

Axiom plans to launch the first commercial space station into LEO in 2024. This will be a crew module, which superficially looks similar to existing ISS modules, essentially a large cylinder. The module will also have research and manufacturing capability. The Axiom module will connect to the ISS and be part of the station, with plans on detaching in 2028 and becoming its own independent space station. Further modules can then be added to build out the Axiom station. Essentially they are using the ISS to help bootstrap their new station, which is a great idea.

Space stations are challenging to build because they are too large to launch fully constructed (although small single modules can be). The ISS, for example, took 30 separate missions to launch into LEO and 10 years to construct in orbit. We had the Space Shuttle at the time, which is almost like a mini-space station when in orbit that provided a base from which to construct the ISS. Once Axiom is up and running, it could then be used as a base from which to do further construction, building out a larger and larger station. If successful, other private space stations may follow.

What is the business plan for these private stations? How will they make money – otherwise they are just a really expensive vanity project? One potential source of income is space tourism. Obviously this will be limited to the super wealthy for the foreseeable future, but still the occasional fat cat willing to shell out millions for a stay in orbit will help support the industry. The hope is that the price will come down over time, so that eventually the merely moderately wealthy could afford it. How long it will take for stays in LEO to be in the range of a luxury vacation a middle-class family can afford is unclear.

That will require reducing the cost of just getting into orbit by another order of magnitude. Right now SpaceX claims the Falcon 9 can get stuff into orbit for less than $1,600 per kg. For a 70kg adult that would be $112,000. They hope, with the Starship, to get this figure down to $200 per kg ($14,000 for a 70 kg adult). This is still really expensive, but could be a once-in-a-lifetime trip for someone in the upper middle class.

In addition to tourism, perhaps the most significant source of income will come from agencies like NASA, who will pay for access to these stations. They may need them for their own missions, or to conduct research in microgravity. Contracts to government agencies will likely be the life-blood of private space stations for a long time.

The big question is – will there be a private industry “killer app” that will make a private space station profitable without government contracts? This could be some form of manufacturing in microgravity, although the product will have to be really valuable to justify LEO manufacture.  Industrial research could also be a valuable product. If companies will benefit from investing millions in access to private space stations, then a space industry could be viable.

Private space stations could also be a gateway to deep space, but then there would need to be deep space activity that is extremely profitable. Perhaps the most profitable such activity would be mining asteroids, especially if they have precious metals like platinum. Asteroid mining could be worth trillions, if we could get access to them and have a way to mine them and bring back the metals to Earth. This may require an LEO infrastructure. Access to the Moon, for mining of H2 to use in future fusion reactors, is another potential industry.

Right now investing in space stations is a gamble on future demand. This gamble is partially mitigated by partnering with government agencies like NASA, without whom it may simply not be viable to get a profitable space industry off the ground. This is where strategic partnerships between government and private industry can really be useful, and it seems NASA is headed in the right direction. The next few decades will be very telling.