As for the comments about the cars – many people who buy SUV’s, as an example, buy them because they are deemed to be safer cars. They are actually less safe because, as Steve pointed out, people do not drive them in a way they should be driven. Their most prevalent hazard is their weight – they take much more force to stop than a smaller sedan-style car. In winter driving conditions, they are known to slip more easily, slide further and they tend to roll much more easily than sedan-style cars, making them much more hazardous. Because they often have all-wheel drive and look like they’d be good off-roading, people tend to drive them faster and ignore the fact that they are actually more dangerous.

Anyway, in regards to ccbowers concern for the money involved, I know Bill Gates has spent a lot of money in his philanthropic efforts against malaria, perhaps this is something he can invest in and get a good return on that investment.

No matter its use or effectiveness, the real culprits in the spread of falciparum are humans and the focus of malaria control needs to remain anopheles mosquito control – by the (intelligent) use of DDT. No one wants to hear this of course, but if you don’t want malaria in tropical climates you need to spray aggressively and use agents against larvae in standing water. People forget that p. vivax and p. malariae used to be endemic to the american south, and the agressive use of DDT eradicated anopheles (as well as almost eradicating the bald eagle). Everything in medicine has a side effect, and this vaccine will be no different.

10 years isn’t long enough to know whether the incidence of malaria is decreasing. It’s highly dependent on climatic conditions, ambient temperature and rainfall (with formation of puddles for the mosquitoes to breed). The incidence goes up and down each year. If you start your 10 years with a peak, then of course it’s going to look as though the incidence is decreasing (similar to the way AGW skeptics claim that global warming has stopped by starting their series in 1998, a warm year due to a strong el Nino).

A vaccine is an advance, albeit a small one.

Regarding safety in cars. For years, American car manufacturers have been advertising large SUVs as being safe. And American car buyers have been forced to buy cars much larger than necessary because they feel threatened by the large numbers of larger SUVs on the road. So ‘safe’ cars lead to unsafe roads.

They predicted an even greater reduction by 2015. (perhaps due to the upcoming vaccine)

An example that might work better for an automotive analogy: Apparently a sizable portion of drivers stopped wearing seatbelts when car companies started adding airbags, resulting in more deaths and injuries from side collisions, which might have been preventable if they wore their seatbelts.

This example doesn’t ‘ring true.’ I would have thought that a group people who buy safer cars are a group that would drive safer regardless of the car they purchased (self selecting risk averse people). The examples of this effect that I often think of are in regards to foods… e.g. eating more of the low fat ice cream (or more of any food that is perceived to be healthier).

The progress with the malaria vaccine is great as an addition to current efforts (assuming it all pans out). I am curious to see how the $ will work out considering the wealth and (in)stability of many of the countries with the most malaria.